EDITOR'S NOTE: David Leonhardt runs The Morning, The New York Times’s daily newsletter. He has been an economics columnist, opinion columnist, head of the Washington bureau and founding editor of the Upshot section. He is the author of “Ours Was the Shining Future: The Story of the American Dream."
The debate over President Joe Biden’s fitness for another term has thrust Vice President Kamala Harris into the spotlight. Let's consider what kind of nominee she might be.
Harris’ supporters often argue that criticisms of her political skills stem from racism and sexism. And it’s certainly true that racism and sexism infect American life and affect American politics. But this argument can nonetheless do Harris a disservice.
Politicians often get better at their jobs, and become stronger candidates, by listening to criticism and addressing their weaknesses. Barack Obama became less professorial and long-winded, for example. Biden and Ronald Reagan each became somewhat more careful about telling exaggerated stories.
If Harris and her aides buy the notion that most criticism of her merely reflects her race and sex — which are immutable qualities — they will lose an opportunity to help her become more effective in the event that she becomes the Democratic nominee.
For now, it’s unclear whether Biden’s critics will succeed in pushing him out of the race. On Monday, he pushed back aggressively. Yet the possibility remains strong enough that Harris — who would immediately become the favorite to replace him — is worthy of attention.
A Successful Prosecutor
Both Harris’ biggest strengths and her biggest weaknesses have their roots in her background as a California prosecutor. Let’s start with her strengths.
In all, Harris spent more than a quarter-century as a local and state prosecutor, and she compiled an accomplished record — on crime reduction, consumer protection and more. Prosecutors succeed by making more persuasive arguments than their opponents in a combative setting. So it makes sense that Harris’ signature moments as a national figure have occurred in similar settings.
In the Senate, she developed a reputation as a sharp questioner of witnesses, including Donald Trump’s Supreme Court nominees. During the 2020 presidential campaign, she won her debate against Vice President Mike Pence, polls showed. Four years earlier, by contrast, Pence beat Tim Kaine, Hillary Clinton’s running mate.
In a future debate against Trump, Harris seems like a much stronger option than Biden — and probably stronger than some other potential Democratic nominees. It’s easy to imagine her hammering Trump for his role in the overturning of Roe v. Wade and his lawless approach to the presidency.
These criticisms could then become central to a presidential campaign that she would run largely against Trump. Biden had hoped to run such a campaign, but his weak debate performance has made that much harder.
The Vision Thing
Harris’ background also helps explain her biggest shortcomings as a national politician. She has repeatedly struggled to lay out her vision for the country and explain to voters how she would improve their lives. Politicians who’ve risen to prominence as governors or members of Congress spend years honing such messages. Prosecutors don’t.
“She’s a very poor communicator when the parameters are quite wide,” Elaina Plott Calabro, a writer at The Atlantic who spent months profiling Harris, said on “The Ezra Klein Show.”
The evidence is abundant. Harris’ 2019 book, “The Truths We Hold,” was even more laden with platitudes than most books by politicians. Once the campaign began, she sometimes seemed unable to describe her own policies, especially on Medicare, and her poll numbers were so weak that she dropped out before the Iowa caucus. As vice president, she has made meandering statements mocked by both conservative media and “The Daily Show.”
Part of the problem may be that Harris has rarely had to win over the swing voters who decide presidential elections. She comes from California, where Democrats dominate. In her only Senate campaign, no Republican even qualified for the general election; Harris beat another Democrat in the final round.
She can seem more comfortable speaking the language of elite liberalism than making the arguments that help Democrats win tough races — like emphasizing pocketbook issues, questioning global trade and praising border security. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., made a telling comment on CBS News this past weekend. Graham predicted that Harris would have the advantage of being a “very vigorous” nominee but the disadvantage of being to Biden’s left and having favored “Medicare for all” and the Green New Deal.
There is one intriguing exception, however: Harris won prosecutor elections in California partly by promising to be tough on crime. She called it “smart on crime.” It was the kind of moderate message that has long helped Democrats (including Biden, Obama and Bill Clinton) win. If she can convince voters that she is less of a San Francisco liberal than her critics claim, she would become a more formidable presidential candidate.
The Bottom Line
In a traditional primary, I would consider Harris an underdog against Democrats with more impressive electoral records, like Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Sen. Raphael Warnock of Georgia. But there will be no traditional primary this summer, even if Biden drops out. Harris would start any informal nomination process with large advantages. And the combination of Biden’s glaring weaknesses with Harris’ strengths suggests she would probably be a stronger candidate this year than he is.
If she gets the chance, she will face a task that few previous presidential nominees have: trying to develop a sharp new political message in the final months before Election Day.
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
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