Marley Spoon Group SE (von NuWays AG): Kaufen (2024)

Am 02. Mai 2024 um 09:03 Uhr

 ^Original-Research: Marley Spoon Group SE - from NuWays AGClassification of NuWays AG to Marley Spoon Group SECompany Name: Marley Spoon Group SEISIN: LU2380748603Reason for the research: UpdateRecommendation: Kaufenfrom: 02.05.2024Target price: EUR 7.00Target price on sight of: 12 MonatenLast rating change: Analyst: Mark SchüsslerHealthy Q1 results // FY'24 guidance confirmed; chg. On Tuesday, Marley Spoon Group ('MSG') released healthy Q1'24 and finalFY'23 consolidated results that were in line with expectations. Q1'24 salescame in at EUR 80.7m or -12% yoy (excluding bistroMD c. EUR 76m; eNuW: EUR75.6m). Cautious consumer behavior in the meal-kit segment continued toweigh on sales as the number of active subscribers fell 23% yoy to 194k(eNuW: 189k) - the effect of which was more pronounced for Europe andAustralia than for the US - while revenue from bistroMD partially offsetthis decline and had a noticeable impact on Q1'24 group sales of c. EUR 5m(eNuW). Importantly, after several quarters of decline, MSG was able to observebottoming-out effects in its subscriber base (+0.5% qoq) as well as arecovery in both order frequency (+5% qoq to 6.5; +2% yoy) and basket size(+3% qoq to EUR 64; +11% yoy) indicating a return to healthy growth and KPIlevels. This positive development was overwhelmingly driven by (1) ahigher-quality subscriber base with enhanced retention levels on the backof a rectified voucher strategy in H2'23, (2) higher-priced and largersizedplan items and (3) an overall stabilizing consumer sentiment. While topline headwinds persisted, MSG managed to expand itsindustry-leading contribution margin in Q1 to 34.4% (+335bps yoy, eNuW:32.5%) on account of reduced voucher and promotional activity and firstcost savings in fulfilment (-37% yoy to EUR 9.2m) derived from the FreshRealmpartnership. Notably, MSG translated a higher contribution margin into ahealthy operating EBITDA margin of 0.2% for Q1 (c. +700bps yoy) impacted byan increased marketing efficiency (-33% yoy to EUR 13.8m) and a morestreamlined G&A setup (-3% yoy to c. EUR 21.5m excluding one-offs) as costreduction measures from automation, centralization, and the closure ofunderutilized operations began to kick in. This promising Q1 performance led the company to confirm its FY'24guidance, expecting sales to grow by a single-digit percentage figure(eNuW: +9% yoy) and a flat contribution margin of c. 31.5% (eNuW: 31.8%).Operating EBITDA is seen to grow to a positive mid-single-digit figure(eNuW: EUR 2m). In our view, this guidance looks achievable and - aided by apromising strategic outlook and operational progress towards groupprofitability - MSG looks set to disproportionately benefit from aneventual return of consumer confidence. We reiterate our BUY rating with an unchanged PT of EUR 7.00 based on DCF.You can download the research here:http://www.more-ir.de/d/29579.pdfFor additional information visit our websitewww.nuways-ag.com/research.Contact for questionsNuWays AG - Equity ResearchWeb: www.nuways-ag.comEmail: research@nuways-ag.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysagAdresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany++++++++++Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmterBörsengeschäfte.Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysiertenUnternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.++++++++++-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.The result of this research does not constitute investment adviceor an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.°